Washington, Aug 30—Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday that showed the vice president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
The 4 percentage point advantage among registered voters was wider than a 1 point lead Harris held over the former president in a late July Reuters/Ipsos poll. The new poll, which was conducted in the eight days ended Wednesday and had a 2 percentage point margin of error, showed Harris picking up support among women and Hispanics.
Harris led Trump by 49% to 36% – or 13 percentage points – among both women voters and Hispanic voters. Across four Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in July, Harris had a 9 point lead among women and a 6 point lead among Hispanics.
Trump led among white voters and men, both by similar margins as in July, though his lead among voters without a college degree narrowed to 7 points in the latest survey, down from 14 points in July.
The findings illustrate how the U.S. presidential race has been shaken up over the summer. President Joe Biden, 81, folded his flailing campaign on July 21 after a disastrous debate performance against Trump sparked widespread calls from his fellow Democrats to abandon his re-election bid.
Since then, Harris has gained ground against Trump in national polls and those in critical swing states. While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos’ give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with a handful of battleground states likely to be decisive.
In the seven states where the 2020 election was closest – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada – Trump had a 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters in the poll.
A separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published later on Thursday showed that Harris was either leading or tied with Trump in each of those states.
That poll showed Harris led Trump by 2 percentage points among registered voters across the seven states and was ahead by 1 point — a statistical tie — among likely voters. The margin of error was 1 percentage point across the seven states.
“It’s obvious that running against Harris is more challenging for Trump given the shift in these numbers, but it’s certainly not insurmountable,” Matt Wolking, a Republican campaign strategist who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign, said in response to the Reuters/Ipsos poll results.
He said Trump needs to stay as focused as possible in his campaign “so he’s not scaring” away voters who were leaning his way because they didn’t like Biden.
Since formally accepting the Democratic nomination last week, Harris has embarked on a tour of battleground states including Georgia, where Biden had been hemorrhaging support before he ended his campaign.
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